GambleCasino24

Category: Mistakes and bad bets

  • Craps Systems – Guaranteed to Fail

    The game of craps that is played today is around 200 years old. Craps systems are about 15 minutes younger. Trying to come up with a system to win consistently at craps is equivalent to trying to invent a perpetual motion machine. The latter is impossible by the first and second law of thermodynamics, just as the former is impossible by the house edge of the casino.

    The purpose of a The game of craps that is played today is around 200 years old. Craps systems are about 15 minutes younger. Trying to come up with a system to win consistently at craps is equivalent to trying to invent a perpetual motion machine. The latter is impossible by the first and second law of thermodynamics, just as the former is impossible by the house edge of the casino.

    The purpose of a craps system is to use various techniques to overcome the house edge. This is impossible, since the house edge is tied directly to the outcome on all dice rolls. No matter what system is used the house edge is always there. In other words, when you lose, the casino wins, when you win, the casino wins, and you still lose. Here’s an example, if a player bets one dollar on the number 12, for a one-roll bet on a casino craps table and wins, they will be paid 30 dollars. The true odds for that one-roll bet are 35:1. So while the player wins, they also lose 5 dollars. Remember, there are no bad bets on a crap table, just bad payouts.

    Other flaws that craps systems are based on include such things as the gambler’s fallacy (the incorrect belief that an event that is overdue is more likely to happen) or the reverse gambler’s fallacy (the belief that an event that happens frequently means it will continue to occur). Since each roll of the dice is independent of every other roll, these beliefs are totally erroneous. In other words, dice don’t have a memory.

    Over the long run, the best any craps system can hope for is to help limit the player’s losses, having said that, it is possible for any system to be a winner in the short term. (Just like flipping a coin ten times and coming up heads eight times. Probability says the results should be five heads and five tails, but the 10 coin flips are such a small sample that large swings in results are expected). It is when these systems are used for any extended period of time that they will all break down. That’s when the “Law of Large Numbers” (flip the same coin 100,000 times and the results will be much closer to the true probability of half heads and half tails) kicks in and crushes the craps system.

    There is one system that you can use to get around the casinos’ 500-pound gorilla house edge. Take a beginner with you to the craps table and let them use their money to make a pass line bet (which has the house edge), then use your money to place the odds bet (which has no house edge). You now have a free and fair chance to make money at the craps table.craps system is to use various techniques to overcome the house edge. This is impossible, since the house edge is tied directly to the outcome on all dice rolls. No matter what system is used the house edge is always there. In other words, when you lose, the casino wins, when you win, the casino wins, and you still lose. Here’s an example, if a player bets one dollar on the number 12, for a one-roll bet on a casino craps table and wins, they will be paid 30 dollars. The true odds for that one-roll bet are 35:1. So while the player wins, they also lose 5 dollars. Remember, there are no bad bets on a crap table, just bad payouts.

    Other flaws that craps systems are based on include such things as the gambler’s fallacy (the incorrect belief that an event that is overdue is more likely to happen) or the reverse gambler’s fallacy (the belief that an event that happens frequently means it will continue to occur). Since each roll of the dice is independent of every other roll, these beliefs are totally erroneous. In other words, dice don’t have a memory.

    Over the long run, the best any craps system can hope for is to help limit the player’s losses, having said that, it is possible for any system to be a winner in the short term. (Just like flipping a coin ten times and coming up heads eight times. Probability says the results should be five heads and five tails, but the 10 coin flips are such a small sample that large swings in results are expected). It is when these systems are used for any extended period of time that they will all break down. That’s when the “Law of Large Numbers” (flip the same coin 100,000 times and the results will be much closer to the true probability of half heads and half tails) kicks in and crushes the craps system.

    There is one system that you can use to get around the casinos’ 500-pound gorilla house edge. Take a beginner with you to the craps table and let them use their money to make a pass line bet (which has the house edge), then use your money to place the odds bet (which has no house edge). You now have a free and fair chance to make money at the craps table.

  • Craps Bets – Good Versus Bad

    In terms of affecting a craps decision, there’s no such thing as a skilled craps player. However, there are knowledgeable and ignorant players. Although no one (not even the shysters who claim to have mastered the scam known as “dice control” or “dice setting”) can skillfully affect a craps decision, your amount of knowledge can play a big factor in whether you lose a lot quickly or lose a little slowly, or maybe even occasionally win. Let’s not kid ourselves. Casinos are in business to make money, not gamble. The player is the gambler, not the casino. The casino has their built-in house advantage, so over time, they know they’ll rake in the money.

    You must accept the fact that craps is a negative expectation game because of the built-in house advantage. “Negative expectation” means the game will result in you eventually losing all of your money. You may experience shorts periods of winning, but over time, you’re guaranteed to lose. Let’s illustrate this by using a coin-flip example.

    For each flip, you have a 50/50 chance of the coin showing heads and a 50/50 chance of showing tails. A 50/50 payoff means you expect true odds of 1:1 (i.e., if you bet $1 and win, then you win $1). However, the casino doesn’t offer true odds on any craps bet except the Free Odds on the point. The casino is in business to make money so it has to have an edge to make a profit. It gets its edge by offering odds that are less than true (sometimes called “casino odds”). In the coin-flip example, suppose you flip coins with your best friend. For each $1 bet that your friend loses, he pays you $1. However, if you flip coins against the casino, for each $1 bet that the casino loses, the casino won’t pay you $1. Instead, it might pay only $0.96. So, for every bet that you lose, you have to pay $1; but for every bet that the casino loses, it only pays $0.96. It’s easy to see that you’re playing a negative expectation game and, over time, you’ll go broke. Each bet on the craps table, except the Free Odds bet, has built-in “casino odds” that allow the casino to pay less than true odds when the player wins a bet. Because the casino pays out less than it should when the player wins a bet, the casino will eventually take all your money if you play for a long enough period of time.

    How long will it take you to go broke playing craps? That depends on whether you make bets with high or low house advantages. Of course, your bet amount is a big factor in how fast you’ll lose your bankroll, but let’s focus on “good” versus “bad” bets. For example, if you make only Big 6 bets that have a 9% house advantage, you can expect to lose an average of $0.90 for every $10 bet. If you make only Pass Line bets that have a 1.4% house advantage, you can expect to lose an average of about $0.14 for every $10 bet. Of the two, which do you think is the “good” bet and “bad” bet in terms of the player? I don’t know about you, but I’d rather lose an average of only 14 cents per bet than an average of 90 cents per bet. Wouldn’t you? That’s why it’s so important to play good bets and avoid bad ones. Obviously, if you consistently play bad bets (relatively high house advantages), you’ll go broke a lot faster than if you play good ones (relatively low house advantages).

    If you’re going to play craps, you must know which bets are good and which are bad in terms of the player. It’s not difficult, so don’t fear the numbers.

  • Online Blackjack, Avoid Crucial Mistakes

    If you are thinking about getting involved with online blackjack, you want to take some time to actually study the game and learn up as to the various strategies and rules of the game. Too many players make the crucial mistake of becoming complacent when placing a bet with online blackjack when they are in the comfort and safety of their own homes.

    Without a doubt, one of the most commonly committed mistakes that rookies to online blackjack make is not knowing when they should hit and press the advantage, and when it is a good idea to stand or surrender.

    In blackjack, one of the methods of winning is to have a higher score than the other player. On this basis then, many players simply choose to go for the “hit” option, in a vain attempt to beat the dealer. This is further compounded by virtue of the fact that most casinos operate a policy whereby the dealer must stand (i.e. draw no more cards for themselves) when their hand reaches 17.

    However, if the value of your total hand exceeds 21, then you lose irrespective of whether you have 5 cards or not.

    If the dealer has a hand that is valued at ten, then the highest value card that they can draw is a ten, or any of the royal cards (which in blackjack are valued at ten anyway). Therefore, their potential score would be twenty.

    There are 52 cards in the average playing deck, and 2-10, including the royal cards of any suit are all beneficial cards to the dealer. Therefore, the chances of them drawing such a card is 84% (we are deducting 4 from the equation).

    Assuming that no aces have already been dealt, the dealer also has a 7% of drawing an ace which would mean that they win automatically when combined with their current hand.

    If in this same set of circumstances you have a hand worth either fifteen or sixteen, then you should surrender. This is because the chances of you drawing a beneficial card (which would be 6 or less) is 46%. The chances of you drawing a card that brings you over 21 and means you automatically lose, is 54%. As can be plainly seen then, the odds are stacked firmly in the dealers favour.

    If you are thinking about getting involved with online blackjack, you want to take some time to actually study the game and learn up as to the various strategies and rules of the game. Too many players make the crucial mistake of becoming complacent when placing a bet with online blackjack when they are in the comfort and safety of their own homes.

    Without a doubt, one of the most commonly committed mistakes that rookies to online blackjack make is not knowing when they should hit and press the advantage, and when it is a good idea to stand or surrender.

    In blackjack, one of the methods of winning is to have a higher score than the other player. On this basis then, many players simply choose to go for the “hit” option, in a vain attempt to beat the dealer. This is further compounded by virtue of the fact that most casinos operate a policy whereby the dealer must stand (i.e. draw no more cards for themselves) when their hand reaches 17.

    However, if the value of your total hand exceeds 21, then you lose irrespective of whether you have 5 cards or not.

    If the dealer has a hand that is valued at ten, then the highest value card that they can draw is a ten, or any of the royal cards (which in blackjack are valued at ten anyway). Therefore, their potential score would be twenty.

    There are 52 cards in the average playing deck, and 2-10, including the royal cards of any suit are all beneficial cards to the dealer. Therefore, the chances of them drawing such a card is 84% (we are deducting 4 from the equation).

    Assuming that no aces have already been dealt, the dealer also has a 7% of drawing an ace which would mean that they win automatically when combined with their current hand.

    If in this same set of circumstances you have a hand worth either fifteen or sixteen, then you should surrender. This is because the chances of you drawing a beneficial card (which would be 6 or less) is 46%. The chances of you drawing a card that brings you over 21 and means you automatically lose, is 54%. As can be plainly seen then, the odds are stacked firmly in the dealers favour.

  • Gambling Mistakes New Poker Players Make

    Poker is a game of chance, but there is still a large amount of skill involved when playing. Many new poker players make gambling mistakes that cost them a lot of money and get them out of tournaments. Some novices play free poker online and never win because of terrible gambling techniques. However, by knowing four common gambling mistakes that are made by new players, you can greatly increase your chances of winning games and tournaments.

    1. Going all-in too often or in obvious desperation. In many tournaments with play money, some players go all-in the first hand. It may work for a few times, but after a while, someone will call you. In that case, you better hope that you have actually good cards. All-in can be used to get players to fold, but it should really only be used if you have a solid hand and could possibly double your stack. People should bluff very infrequently with an all-in. Going all-in with a bad hand is what many people call “bad poker.” Sometimes you can get lucky, but the best players bet carefully.

    2. Under betting. If you have a good starting hand, don’t be afraid to raise pre-flop, or bet high after the flop. If you have a great hand, then slow playing can work very well. However, when you do start placing bets in a no-limit game, they should not be too small. One reason is that you won’t end up winning as much money if you bet small. Another reason is that you are giving incentives for many other players to stay in the hand. Therefore, you are giving other players chances to hit a hand that is better than yours. The best players bet just the right amount to get it where only one or two players call. In that case, your odds for winning are a lot better.

    3. Over betting. Some players get very excited when they have a good hand. They may go all-in, or lay down outrageous bets. Not only is it a waste of a good hand, but also people can start to read you. If you constantly over bet only when you have something, then people will always fold and you won’t win money. However, if you don’t have anything, then people will also know because you aren’t laying down monstrous bets.

    4. Finally, it is important to know when to fold. The best poker players are constantly watching other players, and guessing who could have better hands than they have. If someone bets high, and you know you have the best possible hand (which occurs rarely), then you can call. However, you need to know the odds of the other person having a better hand. Additionally, many new poker players call large bets when they don’t have anything, they just need a draw card. This is the worst type of gamble. Seldom will a person get that final card they need for a straight or a three-of-a-kind. Knowing the odds is key to playing good poker.

    New poker players are often very easy targets for experienced players. Many new poker players make gambling mistakes that can be capitalized on. In order to avoid those mistakes, it is important to study the odds in poker, analyze what other players could have, and bet intelligently. If you do that, then you will have a fairly successful poker playing experience.

  • Biggest Mistakes Betting on Pro Sports

    Millions of people place bets on pro sporting events. Overall, just about an equal number win as lose. Which raises the question: is there any way to improve the odds of winning significantly more often than losing?

    Maybe so, and certainly part of the answer lies in avoiding the biggest mistakes bettors make when placing their pro sports bets either on-line, at a casino or with friends and associates. What follows are a few of those mistakes to skip over in the search for better winning odds.

    1. DON’T BELIEVE YOU KNOW THE ANSWER: Admit up front that the reason the games are played is that the outcome is NOT predetermined.

    2. DON’T IGNORE THE “EXPERTS”: Understand that there are a zillion “experts” who really do research the subject at hand and make an informed guess.

    3. DON’T MISTAKE A GUESS FOR A FACT: Always do remember that a guess is a guess. It may or it may not prove accurate. In many instances, your own guess is as good, although maybe not as well researched, as the “experts”.

    4. DON’T RELY ENTIRELY ON THE WORD OF OTHERS: Do your own research, but make it of a different variety. Find an “expert” who is accurate to a degree well above average on their picks all of the time.

    5. DON’T TRUST WITHOUT VERIFICATION: There is no need to immediately take a full on plunge into the deep end of the pool, metaphorically speaking. Wade into the water. When you find a quality “expert”, road test the picks by either observing without betting or by wagering very little until the picks have proved to beat the odds.

    6. DON’T GET EXCITED: Not by the hype that “experts” spew, not by the wildly positive testimonials they have on display, not by the photos they provide of piles of cash or brand new expensive cars and not by the words they use as they spin their service. Remain intellectual, do not go emotional.

    7. DON’T FORGET THE NUMBER ONE RULE OF GAMBLING: After all, gambling is as gambling does. The rule is simple: never bet without being willing to lose the amount you hope to win. When you cannot afford to lose the amount you want to win, do not place the bet.

    8. DON’T FAIL TO PACE YOURSELF: Beating the odds is a marathon, not a sprint. Yes, it is possible to be really lucky on a single bet and win a bunch of money. It is equally possible to be really unlucky and lose a bunch of money. To beat the odds and win more than you lose, keep you eyes upon the big picture, the long haul. When you take your time, you can win a lot of money.

    It is in fact probable to win more pro sports bets than you lose, but you have got to have a quality system on your side of either your own making or one from an “expert” that has proved itself over time. Such opportunities, although rare, exist. As noted above, do your own research and verify the facts. A good place to start researching is via the link below.

    Regardless of what course you follow, the bottom line is to avoid the biggest mistakes made by pro sports bettors. When done, you will lose less and win more.